This scale provides information on the resilience of species to the projected future climate in New Zealand – using the Auckland Botanic Gardens as the central location for projected future temperatures. This projection is based upon the ‘Business as Usual’ climate change scenario that uses the SSP3 or RCP7.0 emission scenario as laid out by the IPCC. It is a ‘worst case scenario’ and predicts the climate of 2090 — 70 years into the future — assuming that no steps have been taken to curb global emissions. The analysis of climate suitability of species is based on Mean Annual Temperature (MAT). The MAT for the Auckland Botanic Gardens under the ‘Business as Usual’ climate change scenario is projected to be 18.8 °C.
Highly resilient indicates that the species is mostly found growing within this MAT, meaning that at this MAT the species is expected to be within its preferred temperature range. Bear in mind that the MAT does not necessarily account for extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or frosts/freezes, and droughts. A species’ precipitation needs should be considered as well.
Resilient indicates that the species does occur at this temperature. It may not be the species’ most preferred climate, but it is anticipated to be well suited to this MAT.
Limited resilience indicates that there are known occurrences of the species growing at this MAT, but this MAT is near the limit of known occurrences. The species may be able to be grown at this temperature, but care regarding its microclimate, context and vulnerability to other factors such as pests and diseases may be required.
Not currently recorded indicates that there are no current records of the species growing at this MAT. If there are very few records for a specific species, this may simply be an indication of a lack of recorded observations, and not plant performance.
It is important to note that there are, generally speaking, more records occurring in the Northern Hemisphere and in cooler climates than there are for the Southern Hemisphere and the southern predominance of warmer climates. This can lead to a potential skewing in the data and results may be biased toward colder climates, indicating less heat tolerance than is true of the species.
This information gleaned from the Climate Assessment Tool aims to provide guidance and support for decisions; it is not an absolute answer, and while the predictions are based on rigorous scientific data, they are just that — predictions. The information will give you an idea of what is more likely to suit New Zealand’s future climate, but trialling of plants in the landscape is still a necessity.
Information sourced from the Climate Assessment Tool provided by the Botanic Gardens Conservation International organisation and can be accessed here: https://cat.bgci.org
